I am still new and am only paper trading, but I have been paying special attention to trying to learn business cycles and here is my best guess:

The FOMC is preparing to increase interest rates in 2015. They have been keeping them by near zero for the past six years to help aid recovery from the last recession. The fact that they are ready to return policy to a state of “normalcy” as they put it shows the economy is likely to stay strong for at least another year or two. I voted “Yes” on the poll though because of the low cost of oil, and the very bullish behavior of the market this month, as well as the coming institution of FOMC’s interest rate hike, do have me a little suspect of next year’s first quarter, and a pull-back makes sense to me.

I am also curious as to how Japan and Russia will affect the global economy and markets, but I’m still too inexperienced to really understand what affect they may or may not have. I can’t imagine FOMEC raising rates if they expected them to have a major impact though. Unless of course, they have just kept them too low for too long, and leaving them low would cause concern that the economy was in fact not getting better, but I don’t think this is true.

Also, a century has passed since the great depression. At about that same time Hasbro was opening its doors selling textile remnants. The Jerome Levy that existed then, is not necessarily the Jerome Levy that exists today.