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Quote:
Originally Posted by miles123 View Post
Hi there,
I have a trading system with clear entry/exit/stop/limit rules. I don't take trades very often, with setups occurring on average around 2-3 times a week.
I trade one index only.
I've forward tested it for around 17 months now and have around a 85% success rate with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio.
Having researched this topic, I can't find a clear answer, it seems like systems need to be tweaked over time, but has anyone experienced a system that has completely stopped working having had consistent results for over a year or so?
thanks
Jim
It doesn't necessarily stop working, it depends on how much effort was done to refine the entry/exit signals which could lead to curve fitting. Then there is whether optimisation was used in any of the parameters and whether the periods reflect all market phases.
Systems shouldn't need to be teaked. if they do, then they are more reliant on market cycles which inevitably change and are therefore less reliable
if your system is simple, and can "adapt" to trend state then I'd say its more robust and could be left alone
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