Hi LukasR

I really wish you well with this trade on the EU - BUT - its no high probability and its certainly high risk.

I appreciate you have been trading for 4 years and you may have found this method successful - but if you have - its been through pure luck rather than through skill and probability theory.

For a start - you are willing to risk over what 230 + pips for a stop for a target of only 70 -80 pips.

So instead having a positive RR of 1+ ideally 2 or 3 - with your stop being 80 and your target 200+ pips - its the other ways around meaning you will have to depend on high success rates ie over 75% to make any money.

But to get 75%+ success rates of a weekly or monthly chart - is nearly the same as "fortune telling" - ie reading the future from tea leaves or some other silly method like fridge magnets

The only way to obtain high on ongoing win ratios is short term - as there are less variables etc etc - ie you can guess the weather the next 5 -15 mins or so - but if I asked you to say what will it be like in 5 days or 12 days time - its impossible to be as accurate.

Next point - the trade is inefficient - more like an investment type bet - than a proper day or swing trade. That could mean you could be stuck in a drawdown for a few days or weeks etc and then if you are successful and it does hit your target - in the next few days - or weeks - then its hardly a great return etc.