The charts are telling us more about bonds today than they are about stocks. But keep in mind the bond market - Treasuries in particular - dwarfs the equities market so maybe that's enough to clue us in on future money flows.

a.jpg


This pattern would qualify as a Harami in my book (inside day in bar charting). A small bodied spinning top which formed completely inside the real body of the long red candle Bearish Belthold Line signals the market is losing its breath and becoming more neutral with regard to trend. Looking to the left of the chart and applying more Western technical analysis we see that the Harami formed at the psychological level of approximately 1.50% on the Ten Year Note. More specifically the level is 155.5 to 156 basis points which appeared to be a level of support for three weaks back in June and a level of resistance in late August. Keep in mind Harami's need to be confirmed which would come in the form of a close above the real body of the Harami during tomorrow's session. An even stronger signal that the trend has reversed would be a close above the Bearish Belthold Line preceding the Harami.
I didn't put a highlight on the chart above but it may be worth noting that the potential reversal signal today came at the 40-45 level on the RSI which in most markets seems to be a level of support for up-trends. Failure to hold 40-45 on the RSI(14) would add evidence in building a case that yields have lower to go.