Thread: Is this one Spot on?

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  1. 05-09-2016, #1
    DoloresRos
    Guest

    Default Is this one Spot on?

    Another system for you to ponder.

    This one has been tested using Spot data from 18th Sept 2003 using hourly bars for the EUR/USD Spot Market. Its rather simple:

    1) Trade in the direction of the first breakout of the hours 02:00 to 04:00 US time (i.e. the first breakout from 07:00 to 10:00 UK time)

    2) Close the trade at 16:00 (21:00 UK time). There are no stops.

    Since 18th September (the start of my spot data) this has returned about 26 pips per day and has a remarkable percentage win rate.

    66 winning trades, 29 losing trades, only two occurances of two losing trades in a row!!!

    It seems too good to be true.

    I haven't 100% confirmed these results as this was a quick and simple test of principle. It looks like these results need to be verified
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  2. 05-10-2016, #2
    Donaldcels
    Join Date Dec 2014
    Posts 0

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    I think you may be falling for the classic trap of over
    fitting your system to past data...
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  3. 05-11-2016, #3
    Donaldvaf
    Join Date Jan 2015
    Posts 0

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    Er I don't think so.

    I've done no optimisation whatsover. I've not looked for better approaches, not carried out mathematical analysis or anything.

    It's apparent from viewing charts that by 10:00am UK the trend for the day normally sets in. This system just trys to catch the trend move.

    If I tried to make the system fit then there are lots of things I could do like stops, profit targets etc.

    This system is pure price action and follows the KISS principle so I think its safe from the 'data fitting' argument
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  4. 05-11-2016, #4
    DonaldKi
    Guest

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    A friend of mine use to base his system on lunch time and the fact that trends either re-establish themselves after lunch or reverse. He looked for breakouts based on this. It actually worked pretty well for a while. He had stops and he use to take the price about 15-30mins from closing.
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  5. 05-12-2016, #5
    admin
    Administrator
    Join Date Nov 2014
    Posts 990

    Default

    I have heard of people trading the 1 hr bar breakout finnishing at 9am UK............. they had a 60 point target with a 60 stop........

    U mention 02.00 to 04.00 am ESt time which means the 7.00am - 9.00 am UK time breakout.............


    Also, are there any stops ?? or are we just supposed to close the trade at 9 pm UK, regardless of what happens during the day !??


    At least thanks for your efforts.................
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