Here's another one

ok chaps, lets try a trend following strategy...


been doing some serious work evasion this morning guys, and found a slight improvement to the SIBKISS method over on moneytec.

sod putting order levels in, this literally should only take 5 minutes per week, and if you can then switch the pooter off and collect your profits on a friday, then we could be in business.

firstly here are the stats.. (no stops at the moment.. just wanted to share the idea first.)


since jan 03 trading the GBP/USD fx cross.

Points 6,064
Trades 89
Wins 52
Win% 58.4%
Ave Win 266.63
Ave Loss -210.84
Profit Factor 1.78
Drawdown 798
pts per trade 68.13



a bit better than the standard sibkiss method which i think had about 45-50pts per trade over a similar period, and the equity curve was a bit on the spiky side.

all in all, i think this a lot more robust than earlier methods. will attempt to fwd test it with fresh data.

could someone please verify my results?

the rules are.....

take the price of cable at Midday GMT on a tuesday (my spreadsheet is 3 hours ahead, so 1400 is actually 11am. using the close of this bar gives midday)

if the price at midday is greater than the price at 8am (1000 on my data) then go long, else go short.

close positions out on the 2nd friday. eg 8 trading days later.


looks to be a winner to me. and stops will doubtless improve the drawdown and profit stats, since for once we are trading with the trend.


comments, as usual, will be ignored lol http://static2.trade2win.com/boards/...cheesygrin.gif

incidentally, the EUR/USD with the same parameters returns -2200 points or so over a similar period..

suggests that it might be a useful hedge in order to remain relatively market neutral.

hmm.

interesting...

Very interesting as always, FC. You presumably have results (and presumably they're not so good?) for closing out on the same Friday? What made you look specifically at the second Friday?

well the results are still good closing out on the same friday, but in terms of profit per week, then holding a bit longer is preferable. adds 15-20% to the gross pips..

just tried it on EURGBP with the same parameters - 62% win rate, smooth curve,15 pips per week (not great, i know... but it shows that it has potential)

more currencies to come..

hmm, testing on USD/JPY yields approx 6,600 points since jan 02 with only marginally different entry criteria...(shifting the time periods back 3 hours)

might be onto something here..

Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver dropped lower to $16.80 levels on Friday before pulling back. The metal is trading higher at $17.30 levels at this moment, expected to face resistance at $17.50 levels. Please note that $17.50 is also the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the drop between $18.00 and $16.60 levels respectively. The metal is expected to produce a meaningful correction towards $16.00 levels going forward, as depicted on the 4H chart view. It is hence recommended to sell on rallies, with stop at $18.50 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at $16.60/80 levels, while resistance is at $17.60 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:
Look to sell rallies through $17.50/60 levels, stop above $18.00 levels, target is open.