FREE forex strategy named 'Lottery-strategy'

What do you think about my strategy for EUR/USD:
At this moment I am selling a lot of trades (total lot = 1)
And regarding my buying trades, the total lot = 0.5 at this moment.

Let me explain: most people and opnions (on forexpros.com) say that eur/usd is bearish in long term. (not only that, noasnoas and bansino are also trading bearish). So that is why I'm selling with higher lot, than buying. Do you understand this?

Ok, now for the compensation part. As you also experienced these 10 days eur/usd went up 500 pips. But not 500 pips up directly, it went up very smoothly with 100s of up and down swings, right?
My first trade went 150 pips in negative, but at the same time I bought with 0.5). So you could say, I didn't lose 150 pips but you could say '75 pips' give-it-or-take. Do you understand? Now, 2 things could happen:
a trend could reverse (in this case, bearish in eur/usd.)
b trend could continue going in the wrong direction

if 'a)' takes place, then I will just let the trades run and I will be in profit, no matter how strong the eur/usd will fall. right? So if it goes down now, I can only win (not lose). Right?

If 'b)' takes place, then as I mentioned before, the trend didn't go 500 pips instantly up but with ups and downs. In this case, it went up and of course after 150 pips in this case it goes down and then I can buy again with a lot of trades (that are in total 0.25 lot). If it goes up again. If it goes up again, down again and then up again then I win another 0.25 lot) which means that in this example I would have compensated all the loss from this point (0,50 + 0.25 + 0.25 = 1 lot and this is the same amount as the lot size of my selling trades). This is what I mean with 'hedging' compensates the loss. But sometimes it goes up and down more than twice, and at that moment you made profit when PA goes against your trade. Not only that, when you make use of signals of confluence and probability (for example, you can raise probability if you start out with 0.01 lot trades and later you increase the lot sizes for the next trades as pips go higher).

Hey michaellobry

Thank you for sharing your strategy with us.

Here is my take.

1. Personally I like to do my own Analysis. This involves both technical and fundamental. There is nothing wrong with listening to others as long as you are certain the information they are giving is relevant for your strategy. For example EURUSD at the moment is in a bit of a corrective phase so with someone saying it is bearish maybe right long term but we might see a very large corrective move in which case you may not know a good point of entry or will need a very large stop loss to stay in the trade whilst the pull back in unfolding.

2. I only add to a position if it goes in favour. So I might start light and then wait for further clarification. Adding to a losing position works for some people but knowing exactly when to add and when not to is the key. Learning to take a hit on a trade is very hard for most people so they add to the losing position hoping to recoup the losses, often they never do and sit on a much bigger exposure and loss!

The whole strategy looks a bit vague to me and would be impossible to back test. I would want much more detail in your trade plan in particular regarding the trade entry and active trade management.

With that said if it works for you great. Overtime you can refine it so it suits your personality and then maybe you can add some rules and filters.

Good luck and let us know how it works out for you!