Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Bearish: Immediate target at 1.0905/10. While there is no change to the bearish outlook for EUR, the current price action is clearly not inspiring for those who are bearish. EUR really has to take out the recent low near 1.0950 soon or the current downward momentum would fizzle out quickly. Immediate target remains at 1.0905/10 and stop-loss is unchanged at 1.1040 GBP/USD: Neutral: In a 1.2960/1.3320 range. [No change in view] We shifted to a neutral stance about 2 weeks ago and since then GBP has been trading choppily within a broad range. However, downward momentum has improved somewhat but only a clear break below

paper-traded - Dow and SP500.
I also preferred the shorter 10-day channel breakout as a get-out to protect profits.
As you know, the markets do not trend or range consistently, ( as far as I am aware http://static2.trade2win.com/boards/.../icon_wink.gif ), so I lean towards EMA and SMA to react to the changing volatility, which I prefer to use.

I just need to learn to follow my own rules, and I am laughing !!!

trendie - sorry for stealing your thunder http://static2.trade2win.com/boards/...on_redface.gif

bracke - no idea

not at all, barjon.
glad another trader has seen the absurdity of the claims of system-providers.

Although the tests were conducted a decade or two ago, I am sure the principles are still the same.

The really difficult thing is to accept that super-computer giga-hertz processing can be beaten by a line drawn on a chart with a crayon !!

I think the secret with these sorts of simple breakout systems is diversification of market. The more markets you are able to include the smoother your equity curve. I did a lot of work on a simple breakout commodity trading system a few years ago for a CTA covering 23 commodity futures markets. Any single market had an unacceptable Sharpe ratio but the combination was really quite good. Naturally another important consideration here is the weighting given to each market.
I think diversification of markets with a system and/or systems in a market is essential if you want to be consistent in your returns.