Monte Carlo analysis with strange results
Monte Carlo analysis with strange results
preliminary testing only looks at one particular instance of an infinite number of random walk paths. It is by no means conclusive. A system will probably generate multiple buy signals on the same day.
Why are there no negative values? What parameters/inputs are you using?
looks like a bug in the software you are using. If done properly, a monte carlo analysis will always produce a normal distribution. Perhaps you should look into bootstrapping
It does look odd but what is the input data before your monte carlo analysis?
Agreed. Average profit is not even a tenth for the high outlier. Include a two way commission trip at $10 total and that's $100,000.
Not hating on your system, but it's food for thought.