What sector to invest when consumer spending is high?

[auedakovotisi]

Hi
I am new to stock trading. I would like to understand what sector performs best when consumer spending is high?

[AvitasalZete]

Pardon me for being frank but you're a little late to this observation in my opinion. While it is true that consumer sentiment is up and has been increasing in Q1 of 2012 it's also true that real spending is down year over year. All of the indicators pointing to a recovery are sentiment related while the indicators that really matter and are necessary for any kind of follow through are flat or down including real wage growth, real spending, labor participation, etc. As a result I would not be an aggressive buyer of retail. If you must own this space because you're building an index portfolio or something of the sort then I'd look at the very low end in the dollar stores or the very high end like Coach. It seems the middle class is trading down and the dollar store shops are performing well and it also looks as though the wealthy are doing just fine as well which is positive for the high-end retail market.

[axehojouojezo]

I think focusing on macro issues is the wrong approach for any trader, especially a beginning trader. The macro picture is incredibly complex and always-changing, and doesn't really give you a trading edge.

Furthermore, even if you make a trade based off of your macro insights, it's not necessarily clear if your winning or losing trades were a direct consequence of your economic predictions or sheer dumb luck. This makes it very difficult to learn from your trading and progress along your learning curve.

[Baldarei]

Will that be American express, Discover, JP Morgan, Visa and Mastercard? Are there anymore sectors worth investing besides financial? Because those stocks had rebound wildly since 2009, I am afraid that the risk is greater than the potential profits.