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SwingKong01
11-17-2014,
I've come to the conclusion I want to trade options.

-You can lower cost basis.
-They increase your probability of profiting by giving you 2/3 ways to make money.
-I have a small bankroll and the return on capital is higher than just standard trading, and it's also a way for me to leverage.

The question i have is when selling short puts, say you take on a bad position. You can roll the option, but couldn't you also use a progression to increase you likelihood of success further more?

Blackjack has the martingale, which doesn't work because you can lose 14x in a row even though the house advantage is only 1-7% assuming you use basic strategy.

But you can be conservative in an option and take positions where you have an 80% chance of being profitable, if it doesn't work out you roll your position and double up? Would that work long term?

BlaineTarr
11-17-2014,
The studies I have seen suggest that adding to a losing trade doesn't help....but rolling for duration or more credit does.

However you can hedge a losing put by selling calls as well. Just select the deltas you want to take off and sell those(this will also reduce the buying power reduction of the naked puts)....then if the position continues to move against your puts you can roll the calls down to maintain the delta hedge. Don't go inverted on the strikes until you learn what that means....and don't roll for a debit....unless it is very small.

Or you can let the puts get assigned if you don't mind owning the underlying at that price and then sell calls against that. Synthetically speaking ...selling a put is basically the same as doing a covered call.

BlaineTarr
11-17-2014,
Yeah you lost me... what strategy do you personally use? Do you think trading vertically works long term, the profits are huge but the probability isn't so great, can you roll vertical positions as well?

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