Poll: Will the fed cut rates and what are you doing about it?

[atsahqin01]

What do you think the fed will do on tuesday, what do you think the short term and long term effects will be, and how are you preparing for it?

1. They'll tighten
2. They'll keep rates the same
3. They'll cut by 0.25
4. They'll cut by 0.5

[atabalulah]

I think most agree a cut will happen :lol:

will that help the casinos & gaming industry:?:

[Atnewova]

no cut on Tuesday, but Bernake will make statements that will leave the probability of rate cuts later in the year.
most likely .50 in october, followed by another .25 or .50 in november
with the markets already priced for a likely cut expect a moderate sell-off if this scenario plays out.
position your assets accordingly

[ateyeteifiq]

I think the odds favor a 25bps cut and it's sensible to play it that way, but the no cut would be the most interesting scenario. The Mozilo's of the world and all the pundits who are talking their book while making a case for the big cut will be apoplectic. A 50 bps FED rate cut would be the best for me personally because of the real estate effect, but a 50bps or 100bps cut in the discount rate would be the most economically defensible strategy as it would provide liquidity to the commercial paper market while letting the market deal with their own problems.
I am in a larger than average cash position, have options straddles on GS out through jan 08, am short CFC, long CFC Jan20 calls, and short Jan25 calls.

[asonisgeyo]

Based on the jobs report a cut lookslikely. But, given the fact Bernanke claims to look at the data before he moves leaves me to believe he may not move at all based on mimited data showing a slowdown. I am almost entirely cash in my trading account. Ergo, if the Fed doesn't move I won't be hurt as a selloff is likely since the rate cut is already priced in. I do, however, have a few liit buys in place and wouldn't mind seeing them stand pat so that they would be triggered.