Looking at the SPY, there is open air for the index to keep heading higher into uncharted territory. A part of me thinks that the market is overextended, but there is nothing long term to suggest that the trend will cease. I do not want to build up too many bullish positions in my portfolio in 2015 because I am concerned about a potential pullback.

I don't necessarily think that the bottom is going to fall out of the market either. I think that that is the least probable scenario. Of course my opinion may change as the markets progress, but based on the charts today, I think that the market is more likely to become range-bound. If this scenario happens, I want to be ready. So for now, I am neutral-to-bullish regarding the stock market in 2015.

Ideas
I have been watching and reading up on options in the past month and I am bouncing around with the idea of paying more attention to the probability of options expiring in the money in 2015. Previously, I disregarded this metric because I believed that patterns gave me the edge. To elaborate, let's say that the stats would dictate a 35% chance of an option $5 OTM would expiring ITM. That definitely sound like the odds are not in my favor, but my reasoning was always that the technical pattern I am trading occurs much less than 35% of the year on the Daily chart, so while on any random day there is a 35% chance of betting right, but in times where the Technical Pattern is also alluding to a $5 move higher, the probability of expiring ITM is no longer contextually relevant. This was my belief in 2014, but statistically, my numbers were not amazing. I can't blame it all on ignoring the option statistics, but it couldn't hurt to give them more attention in 2015 to see if that is fruitful. For example if the probability of expiring ITM is 20%, then perhaps, my risk rewards needs +5R to offset the low probability move?
One of my issues in 2014 was getting in before an actual breakout happened. One potential workaround for this is to set limit orders on purchasing options that are contingent on price being above a key resistance area. I don't plan on day trading or watching the markets for hours on end as I did in 2013, so this could be a viable alternative. I can also set a OTO order that enables a sell stop below the last higher high and call it a day.
OTM options make for high risk/high reward. If I revert back to DITM options, what are the positives/drawbacks for that strategy?
I need to be content with not trying to be the first person into a trade. Winning less trades but making my entries better sounds like the plan for me. If I have to decrease my position sizing, then so be it. If I have to miss the first part of the trade, then I am OK with that. My goal is to have more winners than losers, not to call bottoms which I unconsciously was doing when I bought at trendlines on pullbacks with no end in sight.
Perhaps I am trying to win too big which results in my setting very tight stops. Back in the day where there was talk of stops being placed in positions where everything has to go wrong in order for it to be hit. Can I confidently say that my trades did that in 2014? Or is it that my trades are just right below the nearest higher low? Am I guilty of picking the nearest thing that looks like support instead of decreasing my position size and going for something that is more relevant?

Rules for 2015
I think that my Risk:Reward should always be higher than my probability of expiring in the money where possible.
The quicker the expected move, the more closer your strike price should be to cancel out time decay
Keep an eye out for lingering resistance overhead. Even the slightest amount of price action overhead increases the probability that traders will look to take profit at those price points.

Current Tasks
Create a screener that finds stocks that are likely to move sideways and do nothing
Remember the three steps to successful goals:
1.) Figure out a reason for achieving your goals that is unique to you? why do you want to achieve success? Also envision how your life will be different once success is achieved: I want to achieve success to reinforce that I can do anything that I put my mind to. I am not in it for the money, but rather the freedom that the money brings. Once I become successful at trading, I can do and be anything that I desire in my life. I will have more time for reading, videogames, blogging, exercise? basically living life to the fullest.
2.) Set smaller goals that lead up to the main goals. If you just set the large goal without smaller goals that lead to it, it will never feel like you?re progressing towards the overarching goal and you are more likely to be discouraged. Realize how hard it is and plan ahead to be better prepared. Every month, I can set a task that I am looking to excel at. From there, I can see my progress in a more efficient manner. Last year, I was trading for the sake of trading and did not have any goals that I was working towards other than making profits. That clearly did not work and so now is the time to double down and figure this sh*t out once and for all. If this was easy, everyone would be a millionaire already. Of course it is not easy and of course it will take time, but in the long run, I can and WILL excel in this like I have done in other facets of my life.
3.) Think in advance of potential shortfalls to your goal. What are some ways you can foresee being distracted or offput? Write these down and then visualize ways to work around it so that you are mentally prepared if/when these scenarios arise. Some potential shortfalls that I am aware of is that I will stop doing the extra work and simply trade to trade again. Another potential issue is that I may be deterred or lose faith in my ability after a string of losers. That happened in 2013 and 2014. This year, I will constantly work towards becoming a better trader, and one of the main differences is that I will set myself up to have my confidence built along the way to ensure that I stay motivated to trade as well as motivated to stay better. The additional notes and topics that I am forcing myself to do in my journal are going to be time-consuming and frustrating at times, but eternal vigilance is the price of liberty. I have strayed away from the mindset (and skillset) that is needed to be a winner by being stuck on autopilot in a way that is not advantageous as a trader. That shit is over and now it is time to get back into mad scientist territory.
Reread my current books on entries and trend recognition on the entry chart
Brush up on candlestick recognition. (Just the basics like dojis and bearish engulfing patterns)
Weigh the pros and cons of DITM options and come to a conclusion

Goals for 2015
(Focus on ONLY one Goal at a time. Once the goal has been completed, you can move onto the next task)
Work on directionless spreads and credit spreads to increase probability
Look into Credit Spreads as an alternative method of participating in the market passively.
I will speed-read 'Zen and The Art of Poker' to remind myself about the benefits of patience and accepting the smaller more consistent victories instead of swinging for the fences on every trade.
Get a better understanding about auctions and the flow of the markets
There was a point where I could view a chart and look at 4-5 things at once and reach a conclusion quickly. Currently, it takes a lot longer for me to mentally process what a chart says about the future but I'd like to return to that type of familiarity with charts. These are the skills that I'd prefer to come naturally:
Identifying when probability has increased/decreased
Volume/conviction of market shows this
Refresher course on candlesticks so that I can be more cautious when I see a doji or a bearish engulfing pattern on a longer term timeframe
Identifying if the stock is:
Rangebound/consolidating
indecisive (steer clear): This happens when there are conflicting accounts of the market based on the metrics that I look at
Accumulating or Distributing at key points
Realizing when a pattern looks cleaner and more likely to succeed as a result
Define and memorize my entry criteria
Aim to never lose more than 1.25R per trade (including commission
Become vigilant in my positions to keep an eye out for ways to cut my losses short.
Find a support system of people who are interested in trading and seeing you trade well. It will go a long way to prevent burning out during a drawdown
Plan ahead of time and create a routine so that everything becomes automatic.