Dividend investors crave predictability. Once they lock onto payment streams, they don't want to hear about any interruptions. And if a company dares to withhold a quarterly dividend payout, then many investors simply head to the exits.

I discussed this phenomenon recently with regard to Carl Icahn and his big stake in CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR).

As I noted earlier this month, CVR had a big hiccup with its third-quarter dividend, but it appears positioned to pay out $3 or $4 per unit in dividends next year. Shares trading around $22 don't begin to reflect that potential income.

Amazingly, a virtually identical scenario has just played out with another oil refiner. And the setup is every bit as compelling.

A series of technical problems at a key refinery led to a sharp drop in output for Alon USA Partners (NYSE: ALDW), the master limited partnership (MLP) of Alon Energy (NYSE: ALJ). In fact, the quarterly production was so weak that Alon USA Partners didn't simply make less money -- it lost money. And though investors were bracing for a smaller than usual dividend, they got nothing. Shares of ALDW, which traded up toward the $30 mark in the spring, are now below $14.