March 16, 2012 - Peabody Energy (BTU)
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Peabody Energy (BTU) - Quick Takes Pro Chart of the Day
March 16, 2012 - Peabody Energy (BTU)
Market Indicators Point To More Gains
Another day, another dollar. Or should I say another week, another stock market rally. The S&P 500 finished the week +2.39% mainly due to large gains on Wednesday after FOMC minutes and positive news from bank stress tests. Overall the economy seems to be humming along ok and investors and feeling confident.
Market indices are back to overbought levels already although we?ve seen over the last 2-3 months that doesn?t mean much. You can see below that the Option Buyers Sentiment Gauge is well below bullish extremes as is the McClellan Oscillator. If anything, they are both looking decidedly neutral. With my trading style, I find it hard to chase markets that are this overbought, but for any bulls out there I think selling some OTM April Bull Put spreads on SPX would make sense here. There is strong support at 1300 and 1275 so something like the 1260-1270 spread might make sense, but with volatility so low, decent premiums are going to be hard to come by getting filled may be difficult.
AAPL provided plenty of highlights again this week. Traders came in and took profit at bang on $600 (well $600.01 to be exact) on Thursday. Implied volatility is up to 38% so it could be a good time to look at an Iron Condor.
Volatility is at a 52 week low below 15, it may stay there for a while, but one thing I can guarantee is that it will rear its head again at some point in 2012. We will be waiting.
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Im Buying BAC Puts!!
Just bought 40 BAC Puts about a 2200 trade im holding into stress test results.
Strike is 9.
Probably selling tomorrow early.
-Redstripe.
Dave Landry's Market in a Minute - Friday, 3/16/12
Random Thoughts
The market resumed its rally out of a Persistent Pullback pattern. This action has it at multi-year highs--decade highs for the quack!
The strong such as Banks and Retail stayed strong on Thursday. What's even more impressive is the fact that other areas such as Trucking began to accelerate higher.
Most sectors, like the market, remain in solid uptrends.
So what do we do?
Well, as you know, I've been applying my doctorate in trend following moron trading to this market for quite some time. Therefore, if you're like me and just follow the markets because you're not smart enough to predict them, you too have been long for a while.
Since the market is at new highs,there aren't many meaningful pullbacks setting up. So, use this rally as an opportunity to take partial profits and trail stops. Then, on the next pullback, look to reload. Easy huh? Well, it is--as long as the market is trending.
Default gold
Just wondering what anyone here thinks of gold and gold related stocks at this point in time?
I'm a doctor Jim; not a stock analyst!
Speaking of Cramer's wonderful advice about the Demandware IPO this am:
Take Demandware, for example, which will go public later this week and trade under the ticker symbol DWRE. Demandware makes cloud-based software that helps companies design and maintain their own e-commerce websites. E-commerce was a $316 billion business in 2010, Cramer said. It could swell to a $653 billion business worldwide, though, by 2015. The total market for cloud enabled e-commerce platform services is expanding with a remarkable 21.3 percent compound annual growth rate. It is estimated to grow from a $4.3 billion business in 2010 to $11.3 billion by 2015. Cramer likes Demandware has a subscription-based business model, too, because the subscriptions allow for a continual stream of revenue.So how much should investors be willing to pay for Demandware?
?I want you in this deal when it prices on Wednesday night, provided it prices at below $15 a share,? Cramer said. ?Anything more than that and there might not be enough juice to merit buying, even if the company's as terrific as we think it is.?
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) - Quick Takes Pro Chart of the Day
Thumbs up Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) - Quick Takes Pro Chart of the Day
March 15, 2012 - Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)
Default A Weekly Look -- Week Ending 3/09
The current daily cycle for the dollar should eclipse the previous daily cycle?s high, as well.
Friday was day 7 for the dollar.
The dollar rebounded strongly after the two-day swoon.
The dollar printed a new daily cycle high and came with in 0.07 of breaking above the previous daily cycle high.
The 2 day sell off appears to have allowed the dollar to set the daily cycle trend line and set up an imminent break above the previous daily cycle high.
Being the fist daily cycle of the new intermediate cycle brings an expectation for this to be a right translated cycle peaking in the 12 ? 18 day range before rolling over into a daily cycle low.
Stocks
Investing Plan
This thread will break down the plans for long or longer term investing.
Retail Stocks Getting Scary
Retail remains extremely hot. As many retail stocks continue to make new 52 week highs, many investors wonder if it will ever stop. The answer is yes, and it may be sooner than later. Tomorrow, the Non Farm Payrolls Report will be released. This will show the world how many jobs were created in the last month. It is estimated that 200,000 were added. Should this number fall short, retail may suddenly get very weak.
Why?
If the jobs picture starts to cloud up and the Unemployment Rate stops falling, the public may not have as much disposable income as expected. In addition, should gas prices continue to rise, many Americans will start pulling back on their spending habits. As expenses rise, the first thing to go is retail merchandise such as the TV's and clothes.
In this Chief Market Strategists humble opinion, stocks like Macy's, Inc. (NYSE:M) and Dillard's, Inc. (NYSEDS), along with others, are near a sharp pullback. These stocks are over extended in the short term.
Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks
