Dazzam ,

you are right ,, The simplest strategies are often the best because every one else is using it too .. Your observation is actually a profit making strategy,, In techncal analysis we feel the break out from consolidation are OFTEN in the direction of the previous trend.. .. I have a feeling many swing traders be making a fortune out of this strategy now that US recovery is ahead..

You can attach a simple Money managment system to your finding and you got yourself a good and proven money making system.