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Research: Predicting & Forecasting
Paramnesia: Memory distortion – “Seeing” things in clouds, Jesus on toast, and so on
Forecasting is often stating the obvious, as, “Somewhere next summer will be the hottest day on record,” unless you go on record with a time and location. This is a Prediction. Increasingly, blather and cherry‑picking a poll fills up air time, click bait, as well as, social media.
Predicting is stating XYZ with a criterion for correctness, as well as with a time stamp when made. XYZ will occur this way on this date, for example.
Some Filters to remember:
Establish what you want: Do you want to make money or be a “blabber.” If the former, you must go with the direction the math leads.
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