Market sentiment, seasonality and other factors

[arlbbcrc29]

Hi, I am new to this website. Here is my first post.

Seasonality for the next 2-3 weeks
We are entering a period of strong market from the point of seasonality. Typically one week before Independence day stocks start to be strong and this can last until July 19. However as you can see from the chart, seasonality was not a strong factor up to this time in 2014. I personally expect that stock indexes will be mostly up in the next 14-20 days. Stocks may start their typical move down in the second part of July.

[arupictb11]

This chart shows almost 10-year history of relationship between demand of banks for the money of the FED and price of the S&P 500 futures contract. This indicator is derived from the daily operations of the FED. As you can see rising demand mostly manifests in rising price of the ES futures contract. This indicator is very smoothed ( 25+50 weeks) and serves as a tool for finding longer trends. Right now you can see that indicator have reached a threshold of 50. It looks like banks are starting to be defensive again. We can take it as a warning that some correction could be on the cards for the summer.

[aspmwjlo23]

This ETF is on BUY signal . It seems to me that another wave up has just started. The price could go somewhere above $150, perhaps to the upper trendline.