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Facebook will be out of business in 5 years.
I am going to make a bold prediction and I am sure there will be many people who think I'm nuts.
Facebook will be out of business in the next 5 years !
I dont think they can monetize their 1 billion + users. People come to the service to view the latest news on their friends and thats it !!
How many of you have ever clicked on a FB ad unless by mistake.
I log on every day and never ever ever have clicked on an ad.
I don't use facebook much, but never really noticed their ads either. GM pulled their ads saying it wasn't effective on facebook. Google adwords is the way to go if you want to advertise. Another company recently stated that they think a large number of their facebook ads were not clicked on from people, but from bots. http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2997384
It will be hard for them to monetize the mobile space too. There's not enough room on the screens for ads. They might survive 5 years, but I believe their growth is over. I eventually see FB as a penny stock.
http://www.google.com/trends/?q=facebook,+myspace
They might not be over in 5 years, but they are definitely not a stock to hold for long term. I much prefer to hold Google as they have an unique product that no one else can compete. Facebook is not unique and might be replace by some new trend or other websites.
In My Opinion,
Facebook went public for only one reason, so that they Upper Level Management who had a stake in the company, could get paid...
Facebook is not company that needed more funds to invest in other opportunities to gain more profits, WHICH IS WHY MOST COMPANY's GO PUBLIC... Facebook really doesnt fit the your typical stock type of company.
Due to these reasons, I agree that facebook will not be in business for long... Once the stock drops below $7, Zuckerburg will probably take all the money he made in the IPO, use less than 10% of it, buy all the stock back for less that 15%, take the company private again.
He will still have Billions in the bank...
But thats my opinion.
I think Facebook was doomed when they went public - they can't sustain the business now without increasing revenue, and the only way they can do that is by increasing the density of ads, and that will drive people away. Myspace went belly up when they were forced to double their ads to pay the bills.
