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Thread: Does this make sense?

  1. #1

  2. #2
    Redraw the chart ,, this time from 2014 -2030
    t

  3. #3
    He says “The portfolio is not based on mining the last 15 years of data” and then uses a chart that does exactly that as his centerpiece. I would expect SOME combination of investments to have done exceptionally well in the last 15 years.
    Let’s stipulate that he has identified those investments. What does that say about their performance from today forward?
    He then says “I would be staggered if this portfolio produces a similar performance over the next 15 years that it has produced over the last 15. However, what are the alternatives?” And then doesn’t attempt to answer his own question. As you’d expect.
    I’d guess that if you presented him with an alternative, he’d compare it to his little chart. If your alternative showed lower returns in the last 15 years, he would deem it inferior for that reason---all the while claiming that he’s not data mining.
    He proclaims it “entails….lower risk” than the 3 alternatives shown in his chart. Sez who and over what time period? Where are his proclamations about the risk for that portfolio in 2015, 2020, or 2025?
    Look—the guy says he is a “full-time investment writer”. He has to write to eat. This article is today’s offering. He can’t turn in a blank page to his boss. It’s an opinion, pure and simple.

  4. #4

  5. #5
    It's exactly the same thing for folks who are buyers or owners of funds like vwinx, looking in the rearview mirror while making forward looking predictions about a 20 year future of those types of funds as well.....

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