Jack you are one long winded dude. I have a slightly bearish outlook, and have been maintaining a fair number of protective puts, but the world is not coming to an end.
Forgive me if I am wrong, but you really sound like someone who got seriously burned and is now on a crusade.
If you believe all that, why not buy index puts or sell calls? Or take a broad group of short positions? Conquer the crash rather than run and hide.
There's too much in your post for a point by point rebuttal and I believe a good portion of whhat you've said. However in the spirit of debate...
When you say "We will see a massive correction over the next year in the stock market." aren't you doing just what you rag on Jim for doing? Making absolute statements? If you're wrong then what You'll be just like him.
I don't see a triple top on the indices, I see a lateral move through trend lines, especially in the S&P weekly but no triple top.
I think the single digit growth assumptions are more baked in than you seem to. Traders and Institutionals have been backing away from the high P/E for 2 quarters.
I think inflation is a moderate to slight risk at least until/if we see the wage piece fall into your scenario.
I don't see any of the geopolitical risk countries you name really moving the markets, unless a whole bunch of stuff happens at once. I will say if you're looking for trouble hidden, watch Taiwan as we move towards either the Olympics or the Worlds Fair 2 years later, note they changed the name of their postal service this week. (remember you heard it here first, Dr. Bob)(sorry, that's an inside joke).
And the last thing you said, I believe, should read, "Follow this advice and at best break even while others get crushed". If inflation is as imminent as you say you're cash isn't gonna "Thrive".
Forgive me if I am wrong, but you really sound like someone who got seriously burned and is now on a crusade.
If you believe all that, why not buy index puts or sell calls? Or take a broad group of short positions? Conquer the crash rather than run and hide.
There's too much in your post for a point by point rebuttal and I believe a good portion of whhat you've said. However in the spirit of debate...
When you say "We will see a massive correction over the next year in the stock market." aren't you doing just what you rag on Jim for doing? Making absolute statements? If you're wrong then what You'll be just like him.
I don't see a triple top on the indices, I see a lateral move through trend lines, especially in the S&P weekly but no triple top.
I think the single digit growth assumptions are more baked in than you seem to. Traders and Institutionals have been backing away from the high P/E for 2 quarters.
I think inflation is a moderate to slight risk at least until/if we see the wage piece fall into your scenario.
I don't see any of the geopolitical risk countries you name really moving the markets, unless a whole bunch of stuff happens at once. I will say if you're looking for trouble hidden, watch Taiwan as we move towards either the Olympics or the Worlds Fair 2 years later, note they changed the name of their postal service this week. (remember you heard it here first, Dr. Bob)(sorry, that's an inside joke).
And the last thing you said, I believe, should read, "Follow this advice and at best break even while others get crushed". If inflation is as imminent as you say you're cash isn't gonna "Thrive".
