Thread: Compression and Week

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  1. #1

    Default Compression and Week

    If you are unfamiliar with market cycles, s/r, ranges, and breakouts, here are some thoughts.

    Heavy OCOs on tap for Monday. This spring is wound pretty damn tight and it is likely to uncoil up or down in the next couple days. Look at the compression of S&P 938/40-950 on the daily, 120 min, 60 min, and even 15 min for the past month. We are at a pivotal moment.

    I've set stops for all my big dog investments and long term positions as I'm still overall bearish. I will not watch the long term investments deflate another double digit move as is possible on a run to re-test March lows. These are investments held for years for dividend and growth, so stops have been used infrequently and very loose. If they break downwards, I will sell and re-enter at a more opportune time. Buy and hold has made me many % over the years, but I am more shaky about the future than ever before. Take that for what it is worth.

    On the OCO's. Gonna play large SDS and QID....I'll play those long or short despite their "bear" ETF monicker. "Large" is large. ES Sep contracts on confirmation.

    A large gap will be the head scratcher, but a retrace from either gap may likely fill the orders.

    Looking at 930's to 958's range for entry and will likely scale if there is volume (or lack of) and a sense of trending by 1030(E).

    Many ascending triangles indicate a bullish move, but the anemic volume is usually a big indicator for me to look for the short (proven through statistics and experience). The breakout headfake will eat a bull's lunch everytime. Reverse is true for a breakdown.

    Despite my bearish attitude on an economy that is f****d for as far as the eye can not fight what the market gives you.
  2. #2


    Than you sir for the commentary.:top:
  3. #3


    First big move as expected was today.

    Now, couple things will play out:

    Revearsal and a scream for an upwards breakout through 950 range.

    Continuance to 908, 888, 868.

    Consolidate again and chop until the next compression breakout.

    If you are position or swing trading, these setups are critical to your success or preservation of capital. The tide raises or lowers all ships.

    If you took a beating today, re-look your stops and protect yourself during these setups.

    If you are trading e-minis or index ETFs, you were handed free cash.

    Watch the setups folks.
  4. #4


    Remember, the market will make the final decision despite what the chart says. Chart provides some trade parameters.

  5. #5


    very tight range. watching 923-927 breaks very carefully

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