Thread: Chart o? the Day: Bond Fund Flows are Hilarious

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  1. #21

    Default Alan Greenspan: Bitcoin is a Bubble and Gold is Weak

    America?s foremost authority on bubbles, Alan Greenspan, weighed in on both Bitcoin and gold today in an interview for Bloomberg Television.

    Bask in the glory:

    Greenspan on whether Bitcoin is a bubble:
    ?I guess so. Let me say that currencies to be exchangeable have to be backed by something. When we had ? when we were on the gold standard, gold and silver had intrinsic value and people would be willing to exchange their goods and services for gold or silver and wouldn?t ask any questions of where the monies came from. Alternatively, when we went into currencies, it was the backing off the issuer of the currency. In other words, if some individual had great credit standing, his checks could circulate as money. But the question is I do not understand where the backing of bitcoin is coming from. There is no fundamental issue of capabilities of repaying it in anything which is universally acceptable which is either intrinsic value of the currency or the credit or trust of the individual who is issuing the money, whether it?s a government or an individual. Individuals with very high net worth and who have great reputations could create their own currency because people would be willing to exchange their checks with others probably at par. That is not the case with bitcoin.?

    On whether Bitcoin could be the new gold:
    ?No. Well, see that ? it has to ? it has to have intrinsic value. You have to really stretch your imagination to infer what the intrinsic value of bitcoin is. I haven?t been able to do it. Maybe somebody else can. But if ? you asked me is this a bubble in bitcoin. Yeah, it?s a bubble.?

    On what has changed with investors? perception about gold this year:
    ?Well first of all, remember we used to be at $35 an ounce. And then even several years ago we were well under $1,000 an ounce now we?re $1,2000 or thereabouts. And to be sure, we?ve come down a bit but it?s after a very significant rise. So the issue here is that the reasons for buying gold were, one, fears of significant inflation first of all which didn?t materialize, and just generally the notion that inflation looks to be relatively stable for the indefinite future and that therefore the hedging aspects of gold are really not that all necessary at the moment. And so what you?re getting is clearly this type of problem which one would ordinarily expect when the ? the basic reasons for holding gold are not ? not that strong. My ? I think that we?re probably at a gold price now which is not all that different from where it probably would be considering that it?s, on the one hand a commodity, copper, on the other hand a monetary asset like the Swiss franc used to be before they fixed it against the euro.?
  2. #22

    Default These Are America's Fastest-Growing Blue Chips

    As company executives sit down to establish their 2014 strategies, they're faced with a sobering prospect: The U.S. economy is likely headed for yet another year of subpar growth. It's a theme I discussed a few weeks ago and the prospects of deeper government cutbacks, as a result of the current "sequester" policy, could even lead to even more anemic growth.

    Indeed, more than half of the companies in the S&P 500 are expected to boost 2014 sales by less than 5%. Still, there are nearly two-dozen firms capable of defying economic gravity. Each of these firms is expected to boost sales at least 20% in the year ahead.

    To be sure, some of these companies are resorting to acquisitions to boost sales. These include:

    ? InterContinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), which is expected to more than double in size thanks to a merger with the NYSE.
    ? Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC), which is expected to see a 46% jump in revenue thanks to a recently-completed acquisition of Vanguard Health Services.
    ? NRG Energy's (NYSE: NRG) recent move to acquire assets from the bankrupt Edison Mission Energy will also lead to a sizable 29% spike in 2014 revenues.
    ? Corning's (NYSE: GLW) assumption of Samsung's share in a joint partnership should give a quick boost to the top line.
    ? McKesson's (NYSE: MCK) $8 billion proposed purchase of German drug wholesaler Celesio should boost sales more than 20%.
    ? Actavis' (NYSE: ACT) $8 billion acquisition of drug maker Warner-Chilcott is providing a solid top-line boost.
    ? Constellation Brands' (NYSE: STZ) June, 2013 acquisition of the U.S. arm of Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo is helping to move the sales needle.
    ? Total Systems and Services (NYSE: TSS) summer 2013 purchase of debit-card provider NetSpend creates an industry leader in a fast-growing segment.

    Notably, almost every other fast-grower in the S&P 500 isn't resorting to deal-making and instead will likely generate robust organic growth. And as you'd assume, some of that growth will come from some of the leading lights of technology.
  3. #23

    Default 36 Straight Dividend Raises Since 2004... And Counting

    I received this message in my inbox recently. It brings up a good point and captures what I imagine a lot of my readers have in their minds...

    "We own gobs of stocks in High-Yield Investing. Instead of having more and more new additions, would you consider adding to an existing holding?" - Lloyd F.

    When you cover several exciting new investment ideas month after month, it doesn't take very long to build a large collection of stocks and bonds.

    The current High-Yield Investing portfolio is diverse, but manageable. I keep close daily tabs on all of our holdings. Still, I wanted to accommodate Lloyd's request in today's essay -- not because there is a shortage of new candidates, but because this is an opportune time to revisit an old favorite. And it remains a stellar dividend payer to this day...

    As they say, sometimes your best new investment idea is a stock you already own. And subscribers who have joined within the past couple of years might be unfamiliar with this particular story.

    This company's progress in recent years has been nothing short of amazing. I could tell you all about it, but I'd rather show you. The chart below is simple, yet speaks volumes.
  4. #24

    Default Wednesday links: two gigantic bubbles

    You can keep up with all of our posts by signing up for our daily e-mail. Thousands of other readers already have. Don?t miss out!

    Quote of the day

    Phil Pearlman, ?So we had these two gigantic bubbles and we were all affected and the culture was affected and yet we don?t really acknowledge how affected we were and how the remnants of those events shade our interpretations of present experiences.? (Phil Pearlman)

    Chart of the day



    Delta Air Lines ($DAL) looks like a new company. (AlphaNow)

    Markets

    European markets are rolling over. (The Short Side of Long)

    2014 stock performance will have nothing to do with 2013. (Mark Hulbert)

    Investment managers are leveraged long. (All Star Charts)

    Seven reasons from Doug Kass why the market is overvalued. (Pragmatic Capitalism, TheStreet)

    REITs now look relatively attractive. (Morningstar)

    Strategy

    AMR Corp. will be one of the few bankruptcies in which equity holders come out ahead. (WSJ)

    Why wirehouse advisers should become RIAs. (InvestmentNews)

    Technology

    The semantic search business is not a one-horse race. (Business Insider)

    Why your phone may soon see in 3D. (TechCrunch)

    Investors are moving beyond Twitter ($TWTR) to find social startups. (Bloomberg)

    IPOs
  5. #25

    Default A Sneak Peek At The Dividend Stars Of 2014

    Dividend yield or dividend growth?

    Investors are often asked to choose between one of these two types of yield plays. But it's not the right question to ask. Instead, you want to find stocks with fast-growing dividends that will eventually sport high yields.

    But let's face it, so many companies in the S&P 500 were content to aggressively boost their dividends a few years back, and now seem to simply nudge the payout just a bit higher each year. Here are some examples:

    Indeed, the outlook for dividend growth in the S&P 500 is likely to be much more muted in coming years, with earnings per share (EPS) growth -- not rapidly rising payout ratios -- becoming the prime determinant. But as with any rule, there are clear exceptions. Some companies appear poised for robust dividend growth in coming years, thanks to still-low payout ratios, and by the time the process is done, dividend yields (based on today's prices) are likely to be stellar.

    Here are three companies poised for great dividend growth.
  6. #26

    Default Dave Landry's Market in a Minute - Wednedsay, 12/4/13

    Random Thoughts


    Tuesday was a bit of the good, the bad, and the ugly.

    The Quack sold off a tiny bit. So far, it only appears to pulling back from its recent persistent breakout from a base.

    The Ps sold off fairly hard but were able to recover to close off their worst levels. For the day, they lost a little around 1/3%. This action keeps them stuck in a sideways range. Net net, they haven't made any progress since mid-November. This isn't the end of the world but as a momentum guy, I'd sure like to see new highs.

    The Rusty probed into its prior breakout levels before recovering. Nevertheless, it still ended down around ?%.

    The Rusty reflected what happened internally. The selling was fairly broad based.

    The Banks got whacked pretty hard. The Regionals still look pretty good here-so far they only appear to be pullback back. However, any additional weakness would be concerning.

    There was some ugliness out there. Krispy Kreme Doughnuts got whacked over 20%--I think they found out that I was on a low carb diet.
  7. #27

    Default Chart o? the Day: Forward Price / Earnings Ratios by Sector

    What jumps out at you from the FactSet chart below? I?ll tell you the first thing I noticed was how we?re still treating the Financial sector like a little bitch.

    We?re giving the financials virtually no benefit of the doubt on their forward earnings multiple for the year ahead.

    The banks are expected to be growing their earnings by 11.5% in 2014 according to the consensus, that?s faster than the S&P 500′s expected earnings growth rate of 10.8% and a better pace than what?s expected for five other sectors (Industrials, tech, Staples, Healthcare and Utilities). In addition, many of the large bank stocks haven?t even come close to recovering in share price from 2008 (the XLF is still down 45%) while they have done a ton of work repairing their balance sheets and digging deep for operational efficiencies.

    In addition, the banks will be the beneficiary of a steepening yield curve if and when rates creep up in the coming year. They make a ton of money as that process happens, margins expand meaningfully.

    And yet ? we?re rewarding that set-up with the lowest multiple in the markets, lower than what we?re giving the utilities for god?s sake.

    That?s quite a disconnect.
  8. #28

    Default Hot Links: Racking Up Commissions

    Stuff I?m Reading this Morning?

    Brokers have sold more than $20 billion worth of non-traded REITs and have racked up hundreds of millions in private placement commissions so far this year. Probably because these were the best possible investments for their clients. (InvestmentNews)

    ?Our investment team has a combined 138 years of experience.? Yeah, okay. (ResearchPuzzle)

    How foreign stocks can help reduce a portfolio?s volatility. (RickFerri)

    Seven reasons why Kass is Kautious. (PragCap)

    Why REITs have acted terribly this year, up just 2.2% in 2013. (Morningstar)

    My book, Backstage Wall Street, available at Amazon
  9. #29

    Default December 4, 2013 ? Quote of the Day

    ?Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the nose,? said former heavyweight champion, Mike Tyson.


    go to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's website

    Highly recommended, unconventional trading service:

    Trading Coach Sam Johnson demonstrates the #1 Passive Income Strategy for Traders
  10. #30

    Default Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Cyberonics (CYBX) for Dec 3, 2013

    The Chart of the Day is Cybernoics (CYBX). I found the stock by sorting today's New High List for frequency, then used the flipchart feature to review the charts. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 10/11 the stock gained 35.36%.

    They design, develop and market medical devices for the treatment of epilepsy and other debilitating neurological disorders using a therapy, vagus nerve stimulation. The company's initial target market is epilepsy, the world's second most prevalent neurological disorder, which is characterized by seizures. Vagus nerve stimulation with the Cyberonics NCP System was approved for use as an adjunctive therapy in reducing the frequency of seizures in adults and adolescents with medically refractory partial onset seizures.

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