I do appreciate your message ... and the fact is that you say it is so clearly ... you've just by wonderful coincidence made exactly the same point as I've made elsewhere that if "direction" is observed and the trade is entered only for a minute or two we are predicting ... to some extent. Then as time passes the variables increase, as you say.

Naturally there is a big difference between (1) predicting (knowing the potential for variable outcomes) and (2) GUARANTEEING that a prediction will be correct & I do admit I've teased one or two people by effectively asking whether their predictions come with gold plated guarantees by next Friday, or preferably lunch time today ...

Those who know me well realise I have never expected such guarantees and that I have a genuine interest in the relative usefulness of various patterns, signals and trends, money management techniques etc ...

I also have tremendous sympathy with the concept of keeping things simple while also recognising the ability of the market to surprise with the unexpected and the need to act accordingly ... and I also recognise the need for discipline and patience ...