Hey, LM. Quite a lengthy report over on your website. I hope you didn't need take time off work to draft that one. Thanks again for the analysis.

I too concur that oil will be the X-factor in the recovery in the economy and equities. The recovery is simply too weak to continue unabated in the face of expensive oil. I also agree that $115-120 is the target and I strongly believe that it will get there by the Summer (perhaps Memorial Day). This will put the brakes on any further recovery without the aid of further articifical resuscitation in the form of QE3... which brings me to my next question:

How do you foresee QE3 influencing the cycles that you follow? Do the cycles still apply but just with shallower peaks and troughs (straighter paths)? Or, are all bets off with QE3?

For what it's worth, note that WTI is the laggard in the oil space. It's 15 bucks behind other oil delivery depots in the USA. It's not a stretch to assume convergence is likely in the future which would put WTI at the $115 price objective with really nothing more than simple arbitrage which requires no additional growth in the economy or artificial stimulus from the Fed.