I do appreciate your message ... and the fact is that you say it is so clearly ... you've just by wonderful coincidence made exactly the same point as I've made elsewhere that if "direction" is observed and the trade is entered only for a minute or two we are predicting ... to some extent. Then as time passes the variables increase, as you say.
Naturally there is a big difference between (1) predicting (knowing the potential for variable outcomes) and (2) GUARANTEEING that a prediction will be correct & I do admit I've teased one or two people by effectively asking whether their predictions come with gold plated guarantees by next Friday, or preferably lunch time today ...
Those who know me well realise I have never expected such guarantees and that I have a genuine interest in the relative usefulness of various patterns, signals and trends, money management techniques etc ...
I also have tremendous sympathy with the concept of keeping things simple while also recognising the ability of the market to surprise with the unexpected and the need to act accordingly ... and I also recognise the need for discipline and patience ...
Yo emperor dude,
yet again we come down to time frames.
You are absolutely right, TA does try to predict the future.
So many of the 'debates' on this forum come down to a question of time frames.
Some of the snotty comments you have copped have come from people who feel that predicting the future in trading is not possible, and they are right, but only as far as it concerns the distant future.
By definition we, as traders, are trying to predict the future, at least as far as our positions are concerned.
The ones that make the best predictions make the most money!
Trying to push that predictive ability too far into the future causes similar problems to that long term weather forcasters face........ too many variables.
Don't let them get to you imperial dude.
Definition of Technical Analysis
Here is a definition of Technical Analysis which I located today :-
A method of evaluating securities by relying on the assumption that market data, such as charts of price, volume, and open interest, can help predict future (usually short-term) market trends. Unlike fundamental analysis, the intrinsic value of the security is not considered. Technical analysts believe that they can accurately predict the future price of a stock by looking at its historical prices and other trading variables. Technical analysis assumes that market psychology influences trading in a way that enables predicting when a stock will rise or fall. For that reason, many technical analysts are also market timers, who believe that technical analysis can be applied just as easily to the market as a whole as to an individual stock.