Swing Trading Ideas

I will post here my ideas regarding trading ETFs. My ideas are mostly based on trading signals of automated trading models that I have developed. I will also present general information on the developments in the capital markets, charts etc.

My first post:
Seasonal chart SPY 1998-2013
It seems to me that seasonality could work this year. Yesterday?s decline have occured just 4 days before typical spring market Top. It is difficult to say how the correction might look like. It can be sideways move in the best case. Typical market bottom appears in October. So there is probably enough time for long-term investors to make investment decisions.

http://onlinetradersforum.com/attach...rts-png.31101/

SMART index is underperforming again
SMART index is underperforming after many years of outperforming the S&P 500. This is warning sign. Underperformance of this index is quite rare and occurs at important market tops. However I do not think that we are at the top of this BULL market. Rather we are somewhere at the beginning of the medium-term correction.

SMART-DUMB Money Indicator
Underperformance of the cyclicals is at extreme. Second bottom could normally mean that market bottom is near, however in this time I am not sure, what does it mean exactly right now, because DJIA and SP500 are not far from their peaks. At least we can say that pessimism regarding cyclical stocks is very negative. It is possible, that we could see a change in preferences again - from overbought Blue Chips to oversold cyclicals.

SPY : TLT Ratio

There is a regular rotation between stocks and Treasuries. I think that we could see another move down in stocks and move up in Treasuries. However this decline could mark short-term top for Treasuries and bottom for stocks. Especially for cyclical stocks . I would buy next decline in stocks and sold rise in TLT. My favorites: IWM, TNA, XLV, QQQ, XLY.