Hey guys,
Well like a million other people here I have a system that seems to be working well so far. I have been live trading it with a small account (5K USD) the last 3 months in the es emini futures with ~60 return in April, ~60 return in May, and ~30 return in June. My question: is there any way I can quantify the chances of this system working in the future? It seems to be robust (works well) across the futures and stock markets, not as much in forex. I can not really back test much since the time frame is 1 second and I only could find 6 months of historical data max for 1 second so even if I were to back test it would only be for 3 additional months than what I have with live trading now. And besides from what I understand back testing is not the best way of predicting success going forward. I know 3 months of live trading is not much data to work with at all but is there any way to run a stats analysis with the data I do have to see if something is "really" there. I hate to increase my account (25k) without having an idea what the chances of success in the future, but then again I also do not feel like trading a small accoount for 1-2 years to verify if it is indeed a good system.
Also the system has just one rule for entries/exits and stop losses so no curve fitting the data either...