'Experts' vs. My 8-year-old son

I am relatively new to active investing -- I only started paying close attention to my 401k and mutual funds in April of last year, when I set up a simulation account at Investopedia to practice before (possibly) doing it for real myself.

I studied several different strategies, read up on the pros and cons of investing in different types of companies, from blue chips to emerging markets, and different industries, and learned what I could about how different financial advisers make their picks to sell or buy or hold.

I then "purchased" $100,000 worth of stock from 10 companies from a well-diversified list of "expert" picks. I'd say my portfolio was just this side of conservative, with four or five solid blue chips, and the rest a mix of emerging market, small-cap and mid-size stocks.

After one month (April 2013), I was down $27,000. OK, I thought. It's just one month. That's nothing when you're in it for the long haul, right?

Still, it got me thinking. So I opened another simulated account worth $100,000 and asked my 8-year-old son write down 10 sets of three letter "words," explaining that I didn't want him to write actual words, but just the first three letters that came to his mind. I then had him repeat the process for the two or three that did not match actual ticker symbols until we eventually got 10 stocks.

The results? Between April 17, 2013 and April 16, 2014, my "expert" picks (which I reset to $100,000 on the first day) was down $8,000. My 8-year-old son's picks were up $17,000.

So what does this mean? Probably not a whole heck of a lot, right? It's hardly scientific and I suppose the results could have just as easily been reversed with different "experts" pickings the first batch and my son coming up with different three-letter combinations for the second. But I've heard time and again and example after example of where similar "dart throws" have out-performed the the Dow, the S&P, and many of the top advisers on Wall Street, and wonder if they can all be flukes. True, we probably don't hear about the ones that don't work out so well, but still, isn't this at least anecdotal evidence that for the average Joe investor, it's all just a big crap shoot when you come right down to it.

Yes? No? And why or why not? Thanks.

You mean to tell me your son didn't buy at the ichimoku cloud reversal when price bounced off the 3 day moving average with a solid PEG ratio?

That's the only way to make money.

Those Dragon patterns Doodman. It totally rocked AVNR today....

On a serious note, it may be important to realize that many 'expert' picks are only picked up by the mainstream after they have made their move. Many people end up top buying those picks just because the media is hyping them up. Timing has a lot to do with this. That expert may have said to buy 3 months ago, but it was up 30% already before he got credit for it, so naturally people stack into as the early buyers sell to the chasers. I don't watch CNBC because of this foolishness. Most of my trades comes from reading simple price action rather than following any specific news or a 'Jim Cramer' type. Can I predict every move, no, of course not, but from my past experience it gives me a much higher probability to succeed.