High Probability Credit Options

I have working on an options trading concept for 3 years. The first year was development (mildly profitable), the 2nd year was honing the details on about 150 trrades and the last year the system was used for 204 trades. Results within the system are very good.

System Summary:
1 - the system mandates all the known variables that influence potential success on a trade are pointing in your favor, so the first step is to prepare a list of fundamentally sound (and unsound) companies - my current list is about 150 tickers. Unsound company example - NFLX recently - irrational euphoria which is good, PE 265, analyst projections of average growth over the next 5 years only 8% annually and chart peaking. Conditions which were very bearish, premiums that met my entry conditions, so an entry with a specific upside protection was/is a high probability trade.
2 - review the candidate list weekly for chart patterns with a couple specific characteristics that meet system entry requirements - good week produces 10, poor week none
3 - confirm the fundamental conditions are still present that orignially led to ticker being added to candidate watch list
4 - review credit option opportunity (max 6 weeks to exp) with a focus on two issues. A specific % downside (upside for bear trades) protection based on time to expiration and meeting the minimum annualized return based time to exp, margin req'd and max profit.
5 - Downside/upside protection is the key, so the maximum safety is utilized when minimum annual return criteria are satisfied.
6 - For long term success a trader must measure the p/l of trades that comply exactly with the rules, and also measure the performance of those that do not comply. A statistical omparison of these numbers will make you a believer.
7 - My results are outstanding for high volatility periods and acceptable for low volatility periods. Low volatility reduces the number of candidates meeting entry requirements. Since my system constrains the size of each trade, the level of account cash is high during low periods. Therefore, I do very well in high volatility periods. In low volatility periods my market exposure is down, my return on active trades is equivalent but my cash is always higher, so my net is down.

I spend considerable time on options trading - 10 - 20 hours per week. My net during periods of low volatiliity is only constrained by this time limit. I am looking for a couple of highly process oriented traders to collaborate with me on populating a watch list of 150 companies that most ideally meet potential entry constraints of my system.

I am interested in a closed collaboraton site. I do not know if this can be done on Trade2Win or not. Your requirement to remain part of the collaboration - learning the system and then delivering a stream of tickers which have the required characteristics to meet system entry requirements to a list of companies the collaboration would share. Failure to deliver candidates means expulsion, since I do not have the time to spending time teaching on an ongoing basis.

Anyone interested? If so, please eamil with your experience and your passion for process driven options trading.

I would be interested in working with you. I have time on my hands and write monthly options on Gold and silver ETF's. Have thought about weekly options but haven't dabbled in them yet.

Not familiar with fundamental analysis but am sure its not hard to learn.

What is your plan?

I will comment on NFLX, which is mentioned in my original post as indicating the system delivered a bear trade on this ticker. The general feeling here at T2W may be that the trade must have failed with NFLX up 50 points in the last 2 days. The trade was a May 235/240 bear call spread, entered a couple weeks ago, in this case my upside protection was 42%, and the NFLX move has only been 30%.

The trade may still fail, but only if NFLX moves up another 19 points. The trading in NFLX still represents irratiional euphoria on the part of buyers, in my opinion, with the PE now driven up to over 700. If speculators were equally irrationally euphoric over AAPL it would be trading at over $31,000 a share - do the math APPL share price times NFLX pe divided by AAPL pe. Would you be interested in an AAPL bear trade if it was trading at $31k/share? I think so.

I have not been a regular user of Trade2Win, however, I like the format. I posted this summary to draw some interest in forming a team to trade this strategy. A term is desired for the reasons expressed above.

Having seen little in interest I am close to fishing esle where. is there anyone interested in learning how to get 30 to 75% annual return from a portfolio via some time and strict adherence to a strategy. The summary above is just a summary, I will take the team thru the details if there is sufficient interest.

The reason for my silence on this thread is that there have been very few responses. I was hoping to get a few more, prior to going over the details. Is there a process here to get a little more activity on a specific thrread?

If I could get 4 or 5 with interest I would get started.