Was looking over a few watchlists I put together years ago and it appears the solar and wind sector have performed abysmally in the second half of this year.
Given a higher than usual level of risk inherent in the market with the European sovereign debt situation in 2011 I have not paid much attention to high beta flyers like wind and solar. I'm hoping someone can give me the scoop on why they're down so much this year.
It used to be these traded along with oil. As crude oil prices went higher so did alternative energy plays like wind and solar. Is the horrible performance of this sector simply a reflection of Europe and perhaps cut backs to government subsidies since Europe is the largest market for these two alternative energy mediums? Or, is there something else I'm missing?
Here are a few charts that show what I'm seeing:
Solar-
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TAN...d=p19476234867
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FSL...d=p48917564919
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STP...d=p87113612075
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAS...d=p43461142513
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LDK...d=p09497617176
Wind-
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAN...d=p52341878127
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VWD...d=p96909575363
You owe it to yourself to set aside 19 minutes to watch the following (pass it on):
http://youtu.be/jboTeS9Okak
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Perspective:
http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreen....p_FrontPageMag
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/20...nta_claus_winsMy very non-technical analysis: I think, in America at least, alternative energy sources won't really gain wide acceptance until there is an ongoing catalyst in energy prices that it puts a cramp in most of America's daily lifestyle..... Gas prices going so high and staying there so long that soccer mom has to quit getting her Starbucks latte and actually has to make a pot of Folgers at home, after she has had to trade in her Tahoe or Suburban for a Civic and pile her 2 kids and their friends in the backseat.....how many people do you know who are going to go out right now and take the time and money to get solar panels on their house or a windmill in their yard. I don't know any. While I'm not against developing alternative energy sources I just don't buy the story that it is the next big wave in energy, at least not yet. Fossil fuels are just too convenient for most right now.
Bellringer66 said: ↑
My very non-technical analysis: I think, in America at least, alternative energy sources won't really gain wide acceptance until there is an ongoing catalyst in energy prices that it puts a cramp in most of America's daily lifestyle..... Gas prices going so high and staying there so long that soccer mom has to quit getting her Starbucks latte and actually has to make a pot of Folgers at home, after she has had to trade in her Tahoe or Suburban for a Civic and pile her 2 kids and their friends in the backseat.....how many people do you know who are going to go out right now and take the time and money to get solar panels on their house or a windmill in their yard. I don't know any. While I'm not against developing alternative energy sources I just don't buy the story that it is the next big wave in energy, at least not yet. Fossil fuels are just too convenient for most right now.
Not going to disagree that alt energy is dead in the water until it becomes cost competitive with fossil fuels. With China and the other EMs increasing their consumption and a nuclear show down with Iran almost a certainty in the next 5-10 years we may reach that point in the not too distant future.
However, with all of that being said I don't think it explains the awful performance of alt energy ETFs/sector. Some of these sectors have declined 75% in 6 months. That's a hard and fast move not even matched by 2009 collapse in equities. My best guess is Europe as mentioned in my first post but I am by no means certain as my expertise is not in these sectors.
You owe it to yourself to set aside 19 minutes to watch the following (pass it on):
http://youtu.be/jboTeS9Okak
-----------------------------------
Perspective:
http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreen....p_FrontPageMag
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/20...nta_claus_winsWind & Solar... what happened?
madcowdisease said: ↑
Not going to disagree that alt energy is dead in the water until it becomes cost competitive with fossil fuels. With China and the other EMs increasing their consumption and a nuclear show down with Iran almost a certainty in the next 5-10 years we may reach that point in the not too distant future.
However, with all of that being said I don't think it explains the awful performance of alt energy ETFs/sector. Some of these sectors have declined 75% in 6 months. That's a hard and fast move not even matched by 2009 collapse in equities. My best guess is Europe as mentioned in my first post but I am by no means certain as my expertise is not in these sectors.
I can't disagree w/ Europe, as you said. I can't think of a technical reason as to why the prices have declined so fast so quickly in comparison to the rest of the market. Maybe people are growing weary of waiting for the industry to take off and are taking money out of that sector.
Bellringer66 said: ↑
I can't disagree w/ Europe, as you said. I can't think of a technical reason as to why the prices have declined so fast so quickly in comparison to the rest of the market. Maybe people are growing weary of waiting for the industry to take off and are taking money out of that sector.
That's entirely possible. The crowded trade since October's sell off has been dividend payers. The piss poor yield environment in fied-income only fuels the rotation into dividend payers. Perhaps the rudimentary nature of the alt energy industry which of course means these equities most likely don't pay dividends played a part in rotation out of the sector.
You owe it to yourself to set aside 19 minutes to watch the following (pass it on):
http://youtu.be/jboTeS9Okak
-----------------------------------
Perspective:
http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreen....p_FrontPageMag
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/20...nta_claus_winsIn all honestly if it wasn't for the current President there would be almost no wind/solar push. If he gets voted out, i'd expect the majority of the pull for wind/solar to go with it. Oil is just too strong, and there's plenty of it to go around.
Solar finally achieving cost parity (thanks to gov subsidies) with traditional utility providers in 10 states. Expected to achieve cost parity in 12 more in the next couple of years.
Anyone have recommendations on the best legitimate solar plays? I'm looking for companies with actual earnings, not some penny stock piece of garbage.
Solar City [SCTY] and Vivant [VSLR] are interesting stories. Anyone know more about them or perhaps some other solar play that has good long run potential?
d.PNG
e.PNG
You owe it to yourself to set aside 19 minutes to watch the following (pass it on):
http://youtu.be/jboTeS9Okak
-----------------------------------
Perspective:
http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreen....p_FrontPageMag
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/20...nta_claus_wins