Not paranoia.
I asked the little voices and they said it is definitely not paranoia.
Look Dug, how many different type of investors can you name ?
I know you can name instos so that's one.
The opposite of instos would be day traders so that's two.
Then you have the investors who read the financial results and buy for the long term so that's three.
Let's not forget the traders, that would be you and me Dug and most of us in this forum. Not Peter Loh, he's an investor. So we have four.
Well I'll name one that often comes up in some newsletters and forums; those we generally refer to as the "smart money" ! Let's call these five.
Let's see if we can come up with a few more and I throw this open to the forum.
So Dug, do you believe the market moves completely at random or is it a "chaos" movement, so unpredictable that it is predictable. Or do you believe that there are
forces at work that although unable to control the market (The Hunt Brothers and silver) can give it direction?
Or do you believe something else ?
You've often referred to mysterious trades that seem to stop a trend or at the very least slow it down. I think one conclusion was to allow those responsible to continue to accumulate at artificial levels. Why do you find it hard to accept that there are people who do this in most markets in heaven knows how many securities ?
Sometimes these mysterious forces are the instos, sometimes they are not. Sometimes they are referred to as the "smart money" at other times not. But they can influence the market so I believe they can be called market makers.
They have lots of money at their disposal and they can keep the price of shares down while they accumulate until such time that with supply at that level all gone, and mostly gone to their holdings, the price can only go one way and that's up. One way for this is a double bottom with the right leg just a ticks lower than the left. That will shake a lot of holders out and hey, presto, a nice bullish move follows.
Have a look at a gap on any chart. Almost any gap from the bottom of a consolidation zone to just above the top of the zone. Why, with such large overhead supply would the price move above this zone and what happens in such a case ? By gapping above a zone where many people are holding and would be willing to slowly buy or sell, all the possible sellers become holders hoping for higher profits and all new buyers arrive above the zone to buy into this latest bull run. And who do you think is slowly selling their holding now ? A neat way to eliminate resistance. .Those I call the market makers and those who will shortly bring this run to a close and start another move down. Such moves are not a natural occurrence, they are artificially induced by those who seek to control the direction or size of the market moves. The footprints they leave behind is shown in the volume.
What do you not like about this argument Dug ?
Ae there "Market makers" and does TA show them at work ?
I base my conclusions on an oft encountered niggly feeling that I was being taken advantage of when my contingency stops, pennies bellow support levels were being taken out on low pivots just before the start of bullish impulsive moves.
Then I watched a web presentation by Nick Radge and Toni Williams and his e-book "Master the markets" got a mention. I signed up for Nick's "The Chartist" and one of the benefits was a copy of this e-book. It deals mainly with what the authors calls "Value Spread Analysis". As most books it covers a lot of ground that I have already been over many times but when he gets to analysing the movements of volume in relation to the movement of prices the guy talks a lot of sense. I am slowly going through this book and I not yet ready to draw a final conclusion but I am finding a new direction in my stock analysis.
Not wanting to repeat myself I won't rehash what I have written above but will touch on one topic that Tony covers in this book.
Let's look at what starts bullish and bearish moves.
Above is a chart for CBH. The chart starts with an impulsive bullish move to around 50 cents where, if I remember correctly Dug was expressing disappointment at the failure of the bullish move. Instead CBH entered a consolidation or if you like an accumulation zone. This is where people stock up on goods from the bargain basement. As the supply dries out the offers get higher and higher but there is still quite a large holding that COULD get in the way of the "Smart money" or "Market makers" who are now ready to drive the price up and take some profits. They cannot do this if those who bough between 30 cents and 50 cents may now wish to take their profits and keep satisfying demand. One way to neutralise this supply is to force the price up and even gap it up promising bigger and better profits to those who hold on.
I refer to the first arrow, the one on the left side of the chart. A wide ranging bar with large volume pushes the prices to new highs. Two days later this is followed by a gap up and presto, somebody has ignited a bullish move that takes CBH to above 80 cents. Time to take profits and as the market makers/smart money have run out of stock.
The second arrow points to another low point pivot with above average volume and coincidentally, please not the NR4 candle that signals the start of the next move up. That NR4 is a signal to us poor traders with limited resources that a trend change may be under way.
the last arrow is very interesting. A gap down with only slightly higher than average volume NOT followed by capitulation would suggest that this move was not instigated by the market makers. Here I am sticking my neck out as I don't know enough about the topic but if not instigated by them I would assume they are not ready for a bearish corrective move and would not be surprised if CBH began to move upwards again. To ignite such a move manipulation with volume would be required. Very easy to do by drip feeding the market at ever increasing prices. Keep in mind that market makers/smart money/manipulators can be both buyers and sellers. They really have the bigger picture in mind.