Past Bear Markets vs Now

So we are obviously experiencing the mother of all bear market rallies. And let's see how do those uasually end...ooops! Now granted this is maybe the largest bear market rally yet, but I don't know about calling it the bottom. If March was the bottom we can also begin to think (based on the chart) that this recession was also the shortest on record.

If anything you can't say it isn't exciting to watch it unfold, and this month should be the decider on whether we begin trending down. As the media keeps reminding us: sideways action is a win for the bulls!

Meanwhile the Collogen lips and muppets in suits on CNBC are calling the recession over. Well thank goodness for that. No depression looming, the World's not going to end, we now resume our normal broadcast.

Adding to that that, Bernanke said yesterday no inflation for 2009, or at least hinted at this. He also said we have hit a housing bottom and that things should definitely pick up this year. Fine sure they will. But what about hyper inflation from all the printing he's been doing?

Lol I feel like such an outsider these days saying these things to people. I have also seen this chart before, but it was a older chart so it stopped at the march lows. I was also surprised that this was the quickest recession ever (assuming recovery is on the way).

Lets say for arguments sake this is a bull market and the low is in. There will at least be a 50% retracement of the recent gains and a "higher low", else there will be a full re-test of the lows. Compare each of the bear markets on that chart. They all re-tested the lows.

The 50-200 EMA cross is excellent at picking safe entries to go long/ short for a multi-year bull/bear market. This strategy has been back-tested on the S&P500 back to 1970. Just out of interest the markets are no-where near a bullish cross with this setup, although if the markets can hold the current levels (even retest but not go lower) then its likely a cross will occur later this year.

Of course it does not suggest that you cannot buy-low-sell-high in the meantime (before a buy signal occurs), just that the safer option is to wait for a re-test to see how the lows hold.

Here is another related chart (via) showing how far we have fallen although I think this would need to be updated to include March lows. So yeah we should be around -60% maybe? So with this view we are on track somewhat and still within the confines of 'recession' I would think.

http://www.stockrants.com/forum/imag...parison-sm.gif