PDA

View Full Version : FLKI a Stong BUY, confirmed by the facts !



arupictb11
10-06-2015,
I liked the recent article about FIRE being overvalued and have nothing but the greatest respect for the author, but I disagree a little regarding the recommendations for trading FIRE.


I would quickly add that I am a short term trader and I ignore fundamental analysis. In the short term I see FIRE as putting in a little bottom here. My recommendations:

Action to Take --> Buy Sourcefire right here in the $43 to $45 range. Set stop-loss tight at $39. Set initial price target at $58.

auedakovotisi
10-07-2015,
Yesterday while reading the posts on this site I ran across a really excellent article, Sell this Ridiculously Overvalued Tech Stock written by Amber Hestla-Barnhart

I really like this article because it was clear, concise, easy to understand, logical and unambiguous. If you are going to trade this stock you should read this article. Ms. Hestla-Barnhart made an equally unambiguous sell recommendation:

Action to Take --> Sell Sourcefire short at $45 or less. Set stop-loss at $50. Set initial price target at $35.

I looked at my short term charts and saw something else. I made the following recommendation this morning (Friday):

Action to Take --> Buy Sourcefire right here in the $43 to $45 range. Set stop-loss tight at $39. Set initial price target at $58.

With some pressure on many stocks this morning FIRE is trading at 45.50 as I type and is hardly moving.

If you are keen on fundamental analysis you would have to be insane to buy this market and Ms.Hestla-Barnhart may be absolutely on the money regarding her trading recommendation. And I in turn may be way off base.

I have been trading for a living for about 25 years and I am wrong about 45% of the time. So do not bet the family ranch on my recommendations. But I have built a pretty good career being right about 55% of the time.

Over two decades ago I abandoned fundamental analysis as a distraction to my trading markets profitably. I do have a method and I have done extensive historical testing and when I realized that I would have become very rich trading tulip bulbs in 1637 I abandoned fundamental analysis. There is no logical reason why tulip bulbs should sell at many times the value of gold, but that is exactly what happened in 1637.

I have taken the approach that markets are not driven primarily by fundamentals but they are driven mostly by emotions, frequently fear and greed, and trying to trade logically is going to lead a trader down an unprofitable path.

To take my illogical logic one step further let me suggest that Sourcefire may be ridiculously overpriced because of some good luck with its acronym, FIRE. Hot traders do not want to sell FIRE; hot traders want to buy FIRE.

Savvy stock analysts may laugh, but persons schooled in the vagaries of advertising psychology may be less likely to laugh.

Regardless my fundamental problem with fundamental analysis is that fundamental analysis is based on logic and rules and if you see markets as I do, as being driven by emotions and other psychological factors, logic and rules may prove irrelevant.

aowiukalu
10-07-2015,
FIRE certainly does not seem on the verge of collapse. But I wish it had a little more volatility. It took out 48 today (Tuesday) and then backed off just a little. I would like to see it take out 50 and then I will move up our stop up to at least break even.

Overall another nice day in the markets!

axzhycmv52
10-08-2015,
Well I wish FIRE had a little more fire. On October 12 I reacted to an article:

Sell this Ridiculously Overvalued Tech Stock written by Amber Hestla-Barnhart

Ms. Hestla-Barnhart made a sell recommendation:

Action to Take --> Sell Sourcefire short at $45 or less. Set stop-loss at $50. Set initial price target at $35.

I looked at my short term charts and saw something else. I made the following recommendation:

Action to Take --> Buy Sourcefire right here in the $43 to $45 range. Set stop-loss tight at $39. Set initial price target at $58.

This has been a slow-to-develop trade. This is what my 120 minute charts look like from about 10/12 thru 11/1: