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effiegj11
09-09-2015,
Not sure where this belongs...

Here’s a winning system for swing longs. It will work for some and not for others because it has both technical and fundamental aspects and requires a dose of discretion. I use this once or twice a week when I have time on my hands to look for items of interest and I usually spend about 1 or 2 hours on it. I only do this in the absence of more interesting things going on.

This is only going to work in an up-trending market. It’s up to you to decide if the current market is up-trending or not. I’m still long for now.

Finding opportunities
To find opportunities, you need a scanner. Here’s what I scan for:

Symbol Universe : all stocks
Close Price : $15-$75
Average Volume > 500,000
Stochastic SlowK <= 30 (adjust down if you get too many opportunities, 30 is OK for now. This finds pullbacks)
Beta > 1.5 (again, adjust down if you get too many opportunities, don’t go below 1 though)
Close Price > 200 period daily MA
Last bar or prior bar – Bullish Engulfing, Bullish Harami, Morning Doji Star, Morning Star, Hammer Or just a higher high.

In summary – looking for relatively volatile stocks with volume that are in an uptrend but pulling back (stochastics)

The last part (candles) is merely looking for a sign of bullishness in the current pullback.

NOTE – DO NOT ENTER BASED ON THESE TECHNICALS. TA is just being used to find pullbacks. Stochastics is a great indicator to find something that pulled back but it is in no way predictive.

faOi
09-10-2015,
So - what can we discover about the pullback ?

Well - through finance.aol.com, we get a link to fly on the wall, specifically the following :

http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perma...p/MRXid1181556

6th Jan - the day that this pullback started (6th Jan) was the same day the holders got the jitters about their drug Dysport.
7th Jan - Wells Fargo tried a 2 pronged attack at preventing this fall by saying investors misunderstood the news about Dysport and then followed up by upgrading the stock.
13th Jan - Cowen downgraded the stock.

First thing that comes to mind is - why are Wells Fargo so keen to defend the stock ?

Secondly - looks like BlackRock (formerly Merril fund family) made an aquisition on the 8th.

Garry95
09-12-2015,
So - we have investors getting bad news at a Goldman Sachs conference which lead to a multi-day sell off. Then a Wells Fargo upgrade, aquisition by BlackRock and a downgrade by Cowen.

Are we now any wiser about this stock ?
Are we in a better position to make an informed decision as to whether to buy/sell this stock ?

What would the punters in the audience do with this one ?

Sit it out ?
Buy - full position size ?
Buy - smaller position size ?
Day trade it ?

Anyone ?

admin
09-14-2015,
So - what was the answer ?

For me - MRX looks to have been beaten down with a bit of bad news and had the mandatory sell off. It does appear to have some backers who can defend the price if they choose to do so.

The P/E is pretty high at 55 - but forward P/E is a reasonable 12. This means that growth is expected which is also reflected in the low PEG of .96.

Price/Book lower than peers, Price/Sales lower than peers.

Good peer analysis can be seen here : http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s...MRX&region=USA

So, my opinion was that this is not overpriced. Earnings are out 22nd Feb, so we should be out by then BUT you cant ignore the overhang of the CEO 'mis-speaking' at a Goldman Sachs ra-ra event.

Also - the dividend on this stock is averaging 4cents - so announcements relating to dividends aren't going to hit the price much. The next dividend pays out on the 29th Jan. So the company will be worth approx 4c less per share at that point.

So I say - small position size. 3 stocks are in profit and so I'm allowed to add another.

I put in an entry @ 25.15 after the open - got filled a cent higher.